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Teton County Real Estate Market Continues Upward Momentum Through 2004
Peaks and Valleys
A Real Estate Market Report From Brokerage of the Tetons and Rocky Mountain Appraisals
The Jackson Hole Real Estate Market showed continued growth through 2004 with the three main property categories of single-family homes, condominiums / townhomes, and residential homesites showing growth in dollar volume of sales. Furthermore, it is notable that the positive numbers exhibited in 2004 were buoyed by a strengthening high-end market, with the market segments of resort-orientated lots and condominium / townhomes showing a marked growth. This is in contrast to 2003, which depended on the more moderately-priced market segments for any gains that were evident in that year. In this report, the market segments of single-family home sales, vacant homesite sales, and condominium / townhome sales will first be examined without differentiation between the higher-end resort segment of the market and the more moderately priced market segment. Each of these data sets was then allocated between its higher-end and more moderately priced components for further analysis and comparison to data from previous years.
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Single-Family Homes
In 2004, the single-family home market showed a decrease in number of sales (3.84%), while increases were noted in total dollar volume of sales (2.02%), and average sale price (6.08%) from the same period in 2003. Further evidence of the strengthening single-family home market was noted through the observation of 29 homes that sold and then re-sold during the period between 2002 and 2004. Of these 29 "paired sales," 27 homes were noted to have appreciated during this period. The average appreciation noted from this data was a rate of 8.76% per year (not a compound rate).
The preceding charts reflect the aggregate data from the entire single-family home market. To gain better insight into the different price points of the market, the above-arrayed data was further segmented into two areas, one of which is comprised of resort-orientated properties (including homes located in Teton Village, Teton Pines, Crescent H, Jackson Hole Golf and Tennis, Three Creek Ranch, and John Dodge) and the other being comprised of more moderately-priced properties (including homes located in the subdivisions of Indian Trails, Cottonwood Park, Rafter J, Melody Ranch, Hidden Ranch, and the Town of Jackson).
A.) Resort Orientated Single-Family Home Segment After four years of largely decreasing sales statistics, resort-orientated homes in 2004 showed a small gain in dollar volume of sales (.5%), while average sales price and median sales price showed more recognizable gains of 8.63% and 14.4% when compared to the same period in 2003. With these gains, the dollar volume of sales was approximately 6% less than the dollar volume of sales in 2000, the last year to be unaffected by the contraction of the "dotcom" economy and the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.
B.) Moderately Priced Single-Family Home Segment The more moderately priced segment of the Jackson Hole market increased by all indications during 2004, showing increasing trends in number of sales (7.91%), dollar volume of sales (22.67%), average sales price (13.67%) and median sale price (8.82%). The strength in this market is likely a function of a limited inventory of vacant land in this segment (see discussion of inventory in "Supply Side" Section of this report), as well as the low interest rates that have been available to home buyers.
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Single-Family Homesite Sales
Positive market indicators dominated the market for single-family homesites for the first time in over four years when comparing data from 2004 to the previous three years. Overall, homesite sales showed an increase in number of sales (108.65%), dollar volume of sales (188.07%), average sale price (38.06%) and median sale price (29.43%). Examining sales of lots that had sold in 2004 and had at least one previous sale during the preceding two year period revealed eight such "paired sales." Removing the influence of anomalies, these sales showed an average annual rate of appreciation of 10.68%. The change in value noted by this analysis of the "paired sales" provides the most realistic measure of appreciation. The dramatic change in the average sales price of lots between 2003 and 2004 is primarily attributable to the sale of lots from the recently developed Three Creek Ranch and the most recent filings of the Jackson Hole Golf & Tennis Resort.
The preceding charts reflect the aggregate data from the entire single-family homesite market. To gain better insight into the different price points of the market, the above-arrayed data was further allocated into its resort-orientated and more moderately priced components in the same fashion as was done for the single-family home sales.
A.) Resort Orientated Segment After three consecutive years dominated by flat-to-declining numbers, the higher-end homesite market segment showed a dramatic increase for 2004 in the statistical measures of number of sales (188.13%), dollar volume of sales (248.76%), and average sales price (21.04%). While these figures are indicative of an overall increase in demand in this market segment, the developer offerings of the newly created inventory in the Three Creek Ranch and Jackson Hole Golf and Tennis developments are largely responsible for accentuating the demonstration of this demand. Together, these developments accounted for 54% of the homesite sales in the resort-orientated market segment during of 2004.
B.) Moderately Priced Segment The more moderately-priced segment of the Jackson Hole homesite market increased by all indications during 2004, showing increasing trends in number of sales (24.32%), dollar volume of sales (47.23%), and average sale price (18.42%). The strength in this market segment is likely a function of a decreasing inventory of available product as well as the low interest rates that were available to real estate buyers.
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Condominium and Townhouse Market
The market for condominiums and townhomes in Jackson Hole grew aggressively during 2004, showing a 21.82% increase in the number of sales during 2004 and a total dollar volume of sales that increased by 29.21% from 2003. The introduction of several less expensive developments (primarily conversions of apartments to condominiums) caused the average price of the aggregate of all condominiums and townhomes to decrease in 2003, despite data documenting that, on an individual basis, attached homes were generally appreciating in value. In 2004, both individual sales and resale comparisons, as well as the median sales price for the entire attached home market showed an increasing value trend. This growth was, in part, due to the revitalized market for condominiums in the original filings of the Jackson Hole Ski Corporation.
The preceding charts reflect the aggregate data from the entire attached home market. To gain better insight into the different price points of the market, the above-arrayed data was further segmented into its resort orientated and more moderately-priced components.
A.) Resort Orientated Segment The demand for condominiums and townhomes in the higher-end market segment was up in 2004, as noted by an increase in number of sales (27.35%), dollar volume of sales (35.93%), and median price (6.73%) in this segment. The momentum was in no small part due to buyer interest in the older condominium filings surrounding the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort. As an example, in 2003, the Teton Village area had a total attached home sales volume of 53 units, with 42 of these units being from the newer "condo / hotel" developments such as The Teton Mountain Lodge and Snake River Lodge and Spa. In 2004, the Teton Village area had 90 attached home sales with 57 of these sales being from the newer projects and 33 sales being from the older condominium developments. One possibility for this increased interest in the older units is the potential for a more favorable rate of return received when comparing net rental income to sales price on many of these older units. However, by the end of 2004, the increased demand for these once less expensive units had significantly decreased their availability and some examples of significant price increases of units from the older condominium developments were noted.
B.) Moderately Priced Condominium Townhome Market The more moderately-priced segment of the Jackson Hole attached home market increased in the categories of number of sales (17.18%), dollar volume of sales (19.49%) and average sale price (1.97%). Median sale price decreased slightly in 2004 in this segment. However, this decrease is not indicative of declining property values. Rather, the conversion of apartment projects to attached home developments created an attached home product with a lower price then was previously available in the Teton County Market Place. These less expensive sales accounted for 82 sales during the course of 2004. While these lower sales diluted the average price of the sales in this market segment, comparison of sales and resales of attached homes during the past two year period show an average appreciation of approximately 8.4% per year in this market segment.
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The Supply Side
When considering the health of a real estate market, it is important to consider the available inventory as well as historical demand. The following table summarizes the change in available inventory (as represented by the Teton County Multiple Listing Service) from January of 2003 to January of 2004:
The preceding table provides mixed indications of current inventory trends in Teton County. On the positive side, strong activity in the condominium / townhome market has caused a reduction in inventory for both the resort-orientated and the primary residence segments of the market of 15.91% and 11.54% respectively. Furthermore, the continued health of the more moderately-priced home segment, without the development of new subdivisions comprised of moderately-priced lots, contributed to a decrease in available building sites for the primary residence segment of the market. In contrast to this, the development of an abundance of high-end homesites, coupled with a relatively large inventory of existing homes, has caused a growth in inventory of high-end building sites of 8.15%. Furthermore, willing sellers appear to have outnumbered willing buyers of existing single-family residences, as the inventory of single-family homes in the resort-orientated and primary residence market segments increased by respective amounts of 6.25% and 4.29%.
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In Summary
Continuing the trends that were noted at the end of 2003, the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market exhibit upward momentum in the single-family and attached home markets in 2004. Furthermore, single-family homesite sales showed strong growth in number of sales, dollar volume of sales, and median price. The contribution to this market growth from the resort-orientated market segment was interpreted as a strong positive factor considering this market segment had been somewhat flat in the years subsequent to the "dotcom" contraction and the attacks of September 11, 2001. However, although many positives can be drawn from the most recent statistical data, opportunities may still exist for buyers to get good values until further depletion of the available inventory occurs.
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Archived Market Reports
 2005
2004
2003
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