BROKERAGE OF THE TETONS

Teton County Real Estate Market Continues Upward Momentum Through First Half of 2004
High-End Market Segments Show the First Significant Positive Indicators in four years.
Statistics for the mid-year point of 2004 indicate that the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market is continuing its upward momentum. Furthermore, it is notable that the positive numbers exhibited by the data from the first half of 2004 were buoyed by a strengthening high-end market. This is in contrast to 2003, which depended on the more moderately-priced market segment for any gains that were evident in that year. In this report the market segments of single-family home sales, vacant homesite sales, and condominium / townhome sales will first be examined without differentiation between the higher-end resort segment of the market and the more moderately priced market segment. Each of these data sets was then allocated between its higher-end and more moderately priced components for further analysis. The time period used as a basis of comparison for the examination of these market segments was the first half of 2004, as compared to the same time period in the preceding four years.

In the first half of 2004, the single-family home market showed an overall increase in number of sales (3.84%), total dollar volume of sales (25.69%), and median sale price (9.13%) from the same period in 2003. However, much of the gains noted during this period are attributable to the strength of the first quarter's numbers, with numbers from the second quarter actually showing decreases when compared to the second quarter of 2003 in all categories but median price. However, further evidence of the strengthening single-family home market was noted through the observation of 20 homes that sold and then re-sold during the period between 2002 and 2004. Of these 20 "paired sales," 19 homes were noted to have appreciated during this period. The average appreciation noted from this data was a rate of 8.08% per year (not a compound rate).

The preceding chart reflects the aggregate data from the entire single-family home market. To gain better insight into the different price points of the market, the above-arrayed data was further segmented into two areas, one of which is comprised of resort-orientated properties (including homes located in Teton Village, Teton Pines, Crescent H, Jackson Hole Golf and Tennis, Three Creeks Resort, and John Dodge) and the other being comprised of more moderately-priced properties (including homes located in the subdivisions of Indian Trails, Cottonwood Park, Rafter J, Melody Ranch, Hidden Ranch, and the Town of Jackson).

A.) Resort Orientated Single-Family Home Segment

     Luxury Home Submarket of the Resort-Orientated Market Segment

B.) Moderately Priced Single-Family Home Segment

The market for single-family homesites exhibited positive numbers for the first time in over four years, when comparing data from the first half of 2004 to this same period in the previous three years. Overall, homesite sales showed an increase in number of sales (110.86%), dollar volume of sales (190.7%), and median sale price (69.64%).

A.) Resort Orientated Segment

B.) Moderately Priced Segment

The market for condominiums and townhomes in Jackson Hole showed a 31.29% increase in the number of sales during the first half of 2004 and a total dollar volume of sales that increased by 29.17% from the sale volume of the first half of 2003. The introduction of several less expensive developments caused the median price to only show a moderate increase of 2.99%.

The preceding charts reflect the aggregate data from the entire attached home market. To gain better insight into the different price points of the market, the above-arrayed data was further segmented into its resort orientated and more moderately-priced components.

A.) Resort Orientated Segment

B.) Moderately Priced Condominium Townhome Market

When considering the health of a real estate market, it is important to consider the available inventory as well as historical demand. The following table summarizes the change in available inventory (as represented by the Teton County Multiple Listing Service) from July of 2003 to July of 2004.

The preceding table provides the indication that, with the exception of the higher-end segment of the single-family residence market, the strengthening Teton County Real Estate Market has served to decrease the inventory of available real estate. It is also noteworthy that, while the general trend of decreasing inventory is considered a positive indicator, the remaining inventory in all of the market segments, except that of primary residence single-family homesites, is still relatively ample. Furthermore, while the large decrease in the inventory of condominiums and townhomes in Teton Village reflects well on the current health of that market, these gains may over-represent the recent demand in that market due to the ability of developers to affect large swings in inventory through the selective listing of only a portion of their available inventory.

In Summary

Continuing the trends that were noted at the end of 2003, the Jackson Hole Real Estate Market continued to exhibit upward momentum in the single-family and attached home markets in the first half of 2004. Furthermore, in a somewhat dramatic turnaround, single-family homesite sales showed strong growth in number, dollar volume, and median price. Perhaps one of the more positive aspects of this growth is that it was largely driven by the higher-end market segment. However, although many positives can be drawn from the most recent statistical data, opportunities may still exist for buyers to get good values until further depletion of the available inventory occurs.